Mortality patterns by time series simulation in ten causes of heart disease in Mazandaran province, 2011-2023
کد: G-1821
نویسندگان: Sara Khaleghi * ℗, Jamshid Yazdani Cherati, Sajad Khodabandelu, Maryam Nabati, Farzaneh Amini
زمان بندی: زمان بندی نشده!
برچسب: پردازش سیگنال های پزشکی
دانلود: دانلود پوستر
خلاصه مقاله:
خلاصه مقاله
Background and aims: Heart Failure (HF) is one of the leading causes of mortality and healthcare costs, with its prevalence on the rise. Large-scale contemporary population-based studies on the incidence of heart failure are essential for resource planning and prioritizing necessary research. Methods: In this population-based study, data from the Health Department of Mazandaran Province, classified according to the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Edition (ICD-10) by WHO for 2019 were used. We estimated age-standardized rates using European age standard rates as well as the census population of Mazandaran Province. Our aim was to assess temporal trends in the incidence and prevalence of heart failure in a large general population group from Mazandaran Province, focusing on both genders and ten cardiovascular disease classifications between 2011 and 2023, which we analyzed using time series modeling with the Python programming language and stata software. Results: Utilizing health department data, a total of 73,434 deaths due to cardiovascular diseases were observed. From 2011 to 2023, the age- and sex-standardized incidence of heart failure showed a slight decrease for both men and women (from 173.7 to 167.2 per 100,000 individuals). However, since 2019, there has been an increase in cardiovascular disease mortality, peaking in 2021 at 178.5 ASR, followed by a slight decline, potentially due to the COVID-19 pandemic and increased mortality in the population. The highest mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases were associated with diseases of arteries, arterioles, and capillaries in both genders. Predictions indicate an increase in mortality cases for this category in the coming years, although overall mortality rates for various cardiovascular diseases have decreased, as simulated through time series modeling in Python. Conclusion: Despite a moderate decline in standardized mortality from cardiovascular diseases, the burden of heart failure is increasing and currently ranks among the leading causes of mortality. Socioeconomic inequalities also highlight the preventable nature of this disease, which still needs to be addressed.
کلمات کلیدی
Artificial Intelligence, Time series,Heart Failure, Mortality
